Prediction Markets: How you can (almost) certainly see the future by having skin in the game.

In our modern world, forecasts shape public opinion, financial decisions, and political strategies. Yet, those making predictions—stock analysts, economists, and pollsters—often face little to no accountability when their projections turn out to be wrong. Their reputation may suffer mildly in some circles, but rarely do they lose their jobs, reputation, or credibility outright. The absence of a robust system to validate or penalize predictions has contributed to a culture where bold claims are made without skin in the game. This is where prediction markets, also known as betting markets, come in as a solution both powerful and overdue.