Spike in mobile number portability requests in June suggests Vodafone Idea customers migrating to Airtel, Jio: Report

The spike in Mobile Number Portability (MNP) numbers in June 2021 reflect that Vodafone Idea (VIL)’s customers have started migrating to its rivals Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio, and VIL’s delicate position may accelerate market share shifts to the latter two telcos, Jefferies said in a note.

As per data from the sector regulator Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), 12.27 million subscribers submitted their requests for MNP in June. With this, the total number of MNP requests increased from 593.61 million at the end of May 2021 to 605.88 million at the end of June 2021.

“VIL’s fragile state could accelerate market share shifts towards Bharti and Jio. Furthermore, Jio’s healthy subscriber additions bode well for the tariff outlook,” Jefferies added.

While Vodafone Idea lost subscribers in all circles except Mumbai, Airtel added 2.7 million active subscribers in Metros and A-circles each and reported a 1.5 million/1.6 million decline in B/C circles.

“Bharti’s urban subscriber market share rose 50bps MoM to 28% and has scope to rise further,” Jefferies said and underlined that VIL’s subscriber base has been stagnant since November 2020 even after adding some 1.8 million 4G subscribers in June 2021.

“This is in stark contrast to Bharti and Jio’s 22m and 28m 4G sub additions over the same period,” it said.

Meanwhile, Reliance Jio continued to lead over its rivals in subscriber additions in June 2021 and was the only operator to register net additions in both rural and urban markets.

“Jio also reported net additions in Metros/A/B & C Circles. Since March, Jio’s rural market share has risen by 140bps to 35% and its urban market share has risen by 100bps to 39%,” Jefferies said.

It underscored that urban additions led the telecom sector recovery in June. Airtel signed up 5 million new subscribers in urban markets whereas Vodafone Idea lost 1.7 million urban subscribers.

The sector also bounced back in June with 12 million new 3G/4G subscribers.

As per TRAI, Jio added 5.5 million subscribers led by new JioPhone offers. Airtel and Vodafone Idea added 4.3 million and 1.8 million 3G/4G subscribers in June, respectively.

“Smartphone 3G/4G subscribers rose by an estimated 7m in June as smartphone sales recovered post lockdown. Bharti gained 20bps share in overall 3G/4G subscribers in June,” Jefferies underscored.

Overall, the sector’s reported subscriber base rose by 4 million which was driven by a 4.8 million rise in urban subscribers, it added. “Active subscribers declined by 1m in June reflecting some SIM consolidation”.