UPI MDR bonanza: Why Paytm may win bigger, but Pine Labs could gain faster

Paytm and Pine Labs are poised to become early beneficiaries of the government’s decision to monetise high-value UPI payments. Still, the new revenue stream could have very different consequences for the two fintechs.

Paytm is positioned to capture the larger absolute opportunity, with analysts estimating FY28 UPI MDR revenue of as much as Rs 1,160 crore. Pine Labs, with a smaller UPI base, could see a sharper impact on earnings, with the new revenue stream potentially contributing about 20% to its EBIT and profit before tax estimates.