Will Trump’s tariffs trigger a recession in US? The signs economists are watching closely

President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs — including a 10% duty on nearly all countries and added taxes on imports from 60 nations — have triggered a financial tremor. The stock market plunged last week, and now economists are asking a bigger question: Could these tariffs tip the US economy into a recession?
The short answer? Not yet. But the country is getting closer.

Goldman Sachs economists just increased the probability of a recession to 45%, from 35% last week. JPMorgan is even more pessimistic, estimating at 60% and cautioning inflation can rise to 4.4% by the end of the year — from the current 2.8%.