Reliance Jio, Airtel’s revenue may rise in Q4FY25, Vodafone Idea to decline: Analysts

India’s top two telecom carriers Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio may report a rise in their cellular revenues in Q4FY25, while their third-ranked rival Vodafone Idea (Vi) is likely to continue to decline on the back of subscriber churn, according to brokerage firms.

“We see Bharti’s India revenue rising 8.7% QoQ/38% YoY to Rs 398bn (Rs 39,800 crore) and its mobile segment may dip 0.1% QoQ/+19% YoY in Q4FY25E. India EBITDA should grow 0.1% QoQ/57.5% YoY to Rs 240bn (Rs 24,000 crore),” ICICI Securities said in a research note, seen by ETTelecom.

The brokerage added that Airtel’s enterprise business revenue may dip by 5% sequentially due to the discontinuation of commodity business, but this may have a negligible impact on its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).

Nomura separately estimated that Airtel’s India wireless revenue may rise by 1% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 26,500 crore, underpinned by healthy subscriber additions of 3.5 million, and a modest uptick in ARPU to Rs 247 per month, compared to Rs 245 per month in the December 2024 quarter.

“The uptick in ARPU will be modest in 4Q on account of lower number of days. We estimate wireless EBITDA also increased 1% quarter-on-quarter to INR157bn (Rs 15,700 crore), with margins increasing 20bp quarter-on-quarter to 59% from 58.8% in 3QFY25,” it said.

BoFA Securities added that Airtel’s underlying business drivers remain strong. “We expect 4Q revenues to be impacted by Bharti exiting low margin commodity wholesale voice business, partly offset by the full 3 months consolidation of Indus Towers revenues, leading to a 13.7% quarter-on-quarter rise in revenues,” it added.

“We expect India telcos to report a largely stable set of numbers and estimate Bharti Airtel, Jio and Vodafone Idea Limited to show 2.5%, 2.3%, -2.1% quarter-on-quarter change in India cellular revenues,” BoFA said.

Morgan Stanley, in a research note, said Jio is expected to deliver a revenue of Rs 29,940 crore), growing by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter and 15.3% year-on-year, and EBITDA of Rs 18,850 crore, while the telco’s subscribers may grow by 5 million sequentially to 487 million in Q4FY25. It may report an ARPU of Rs 206 for the quarter.

JM Financial said Vi’s subscriber loss trend may continue, with its user base falling by 4.2 million in the March 2025 quarter primarily due to the churn in the lower ARPU segment, but its mobile broadband base (MBB) is likely to grow by 2 million.

“Further, its ARPU is expected to be flat quarter-on-quarter at Rs 163, as the benefit of improved subs mix is likely to be offset by 2 lesser days quarter-on-quarter in 4QFY25 (while July 2024 tariff hike has completely passed through its APRU by end-3QFY25),” JM Financial said.

Accordingly, Vi’s revenue will decline 2.1% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 10,900 crore, reported EBITDA to be lower 1.2% quarter-on-quarter at Rs 4,650 crore, and EBITDA (or cash EBITDA) to be lower 2.4% quarter-on-quarter at Rs 2,390 crore in 4QFY25.

According to Centrum Broking, Jio may add 4 million subscribers on a quarterly basis to take its base to 486 million in Q4FY25, whereas Airtel may add 3 million subscribers for a base of 360 million, followed by Vi, whose subscribers may decline by 3 million to 197 million.

JM Financial said Indus Towers will report approximately 7,600 net tenancy additions in Q4FY25, driven by Vodafone Idea’s ongoing network expansion and Airtel’s rural roll-out, but tower additions may moderate sequentially to 3,800 – versus about 5,000 towers added in Q3FY25 – as Airtel’s rural roll-out is nearing completion.

The brokerage assumes Indus’ rentals to be flat quarter-on-quater, which may help its revenue grow by 2% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 7,690 crore while reported EBITDA could decline 33% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 4,720 crore in 4QFY25, assuming ~Rs 500 crore of past dues recovery from Vodafone Idea vs recovery of Rs 3,020 crore in 3QFY25.