5G FWA effect: Reliance Jio’s home broadband base 90% higher than Bharti Airtel’s in Q3, says CLSA

Driven by its 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) service, Reliance Jio gained almost 2 million home broadband subscribers in Q3FY25, reaching 17 million total, which is about 90% higher than rival Bharti Airtel’s, according to CLSA.

“Reliance Jio home subscribers at 17 million are already 90% ahead of Bharti Airtel’s 9.2 million and the duo control ~60% market share. Reliance Jio says it is headed to be the largest 5G FWA operator globally, and Bharti Airtel has expanded 5G FWA coverage to 2,000 cities across India,” the brokerage firm said in a research note Thursday, seen by ETTelecom.

Lately, both telcos have been rapidly expanding their commercial 5G-driven fixed broadband services nationwide to boost their 5G monetisation efforts amid a lack of any significant revenue generation 5G applications.

As per CLSA, nearly 70% of Jio’s 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) subscribers are coming from beyond the top 1,000 towns and cities. “This mix of 5G FWA subscriber additions reveals that wider service availability has unlocked pent-up demand from beyond the top cities and towns across India.”

Jio has already connected 4.5 million homes with its JioAirFiber service, and is headed to be the largest 5G FWA provider globally, according to the research note. Airtel, too, has also been stepping up the rollout of fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) home passes – by adding 1.9 million per quarter – alongside expanding 5G FWA availability.

Mukesh Ambani’s Jio is presently second only to US telecom operator T-Mobile, which has a 5G FWA subscriber base of 6 million. However, India presents a huge greenfield opportunity to connect 100 million homes through a mix of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and 5G FWA.

ETTelecom in January 2025 reported that Indian telcos might eventually migrate some portion of their 5G FWA users to wired broadband networks, particularly in urban or suburban areas.

Bharti-Tata DTH deal potential

As per CLSA, if a direct-to-home (DTH) deal happens between Bharti and Tata Play, it will positively impact Bharti Airtel as this will expand the telco’s access to high-end homes. “Bharti’s access to high-end homes will multiply to a combined 45 million as both Reliance Jio and Bharti are targeting converged offerings,” it added.

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Airtel’s homes average revenue per user (ARPU) of Rs 554 is over two-times of mobile which with DTH business has a revenue of Rs 6,000-9,000 crore and margin of nearly 50%, accounting for 5-7% of India operations, CLSA estimates.

Meanwhile, Airtel is looking to leverage the sharp expected growth in India’s home broadband market and boost revenues amid rising consumer appetite for its 5G FWA services, the telco’s management told analysts during the most recent quarterly post-earnings call.

“Broadband penetration in the country remains low but is growing rapidly, driven by fast-paced adoption of home connectivity and changing content consumption preference of customers,” Gopal Vittal, vice chairman and managign director, Bharti Airtel, had said. “We believe the current market can double from over 45 million to anywhere between 80-90 million homes over the medium term.”

Airtel’s senior management said the telco is trying to catch up with competition (read: Jio) by not only improving its FWA footprint, but also sweetening its content/OTT offerings, and expanding the sales channel beyond digital and D2C (direct-to-consumer) by firing up the retail channel.

As per the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India’s (TRAI) data for December 2024, Jio led the wireline market with 11.48 million subscribers, followed by Airtel (8.55 million), Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (4.24 million), and Atria Convergence Technologies or ACT (2.27 million).

FWA, FTTH market growth

With the dominant telco duo targeting major 5G FWA ramp-ups alongside FTTH and bundled and pay TV services, these combined could be $11-15 billion annual revenue opportunity, according to CLSA.

“Led by Reliance Jio’s leadership and Bharti Airtel’s execution, this new opportunity will be in addition to India mobile revenue growing from the current $30 billion to $39 billion by FY27CL,” as per the research note.