Reliance Jio returning to growth, Vodafone Idea’s continued subscriber loss a key concern: Analysts

India’s top telecom operators Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea (Vi) continued to lose active subscribers in November, impacted by the July 2024 tariff hikes and churn in low-paying users, according to brokerages.

However, they added that growth appears to be firmly returning to Jio, while Vi’s continued loss of subscribers is a key concern due to its weak 4G and an absence of the fifth-generation or 5G mobile network which makes it susceptible to erosion in its market share.

As per the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), in November, Jio added 1.21 million net subscribers while Vodafone Idea lost 1.50 million followed by Airtel, which lost 1.13 million subscribers. Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL), which has been adding users over the past four months after the tariff hikes by private telcos last July, lost 0.33 million users.

At the end of November, the wireless subscriber base of Reliance Jio stood at 461.23 million followed by Bharti Airtel at 384.27 million and Vodafone Idea at 208.97 million. BSNL’s user base stood at 92.05 million.

“Jio reported 1.2 million net additions for November after a loss of 14.7 million in July-October 2024. RIL, in its 3Q earnings call, had already disclosed 3.3 million net additions for the quarter. Given the numbers for October/November, this implies a strong 5.8 million additions for December,” Axis Capital said in a research note, analysing the latest industry data collated by TRAI.

“This, combined with VLR (indicates level of active subs) at 97%, highlights that the sub growth appears to be firmly back, after the impact of tariff hike/cleanup. Jio’s VLR for June was 92.5%,” it added.

ETTelecom has reviewed the research note.

As per JM Financial, Jio’s visitor location register (VLR) ratio declined to 97% in the month compared to 97.5% in October 2024. This compares to Airtel’s VLR of 99%, Vi’s 84.7%, and Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited’s (BSNL) 56.9% in November.

ICICI Securities estimated that Jio’s active user base fell by 1.2 million to 447 million in November, Airtel’s active user base was down by 3 million to 380 million, while Vi’s active subscribers base dipped by 1.9 million to 177 million.

In November, the industry-wide active subscribers base was down by 6.1 million to 1,060 million, a decline of 0.6% month-on-month, but a 1.4% year-on-year growth, as per ICICI.

“The first 2 months of 3Q25 saw Bharti gain 0.8 million subs. We expect December to see further gains, as the initial sticker shock of the (July tariff) hike abates. Note that for Bharti, the reported sub loss was primarily on losing subs at the lower end and not from clean-up as its VLR was already at 99% before the hike,” Axis said.

Unlike Jio, the VLR for Vi has reduced from 87% in June 2024 to 85% in November 2024,said Axis, attributing it to the third-ranked telco’s relatively weak network, making it prone to market share loss.

“With the ongoing spend on capex post the equity raise, we do expect some improvement in these trends from 4Q25 onwards,” Axis said of Vi.

Jefferies said that the sector’s wireless broadband subscriber (4G/5G) jumped sharply by 7 million in November – led by Jio (5.1 million), Airtel (2 million), and BSNL/MTNL (0.5 million), while Vi (-0.7 million) lagged.

“Jio gained ~20bps of market share in this segment while VIL lost ~20bps share. A decline in both urban and rural subscribers may have dragged the net addition a bit in 4G/5G subscriber base in November,” it said.

BSNL benefitted in the interim by keeping its tariffs unchanged despite all three private telcos hiking their mobile rates by 15-17% in July. But in November 2024, BSNL reverted to its overall and active subscriber loss declining trend as witnessed prior to July, JM Financial said.

“However, it (BSNL) managed to add 0.6 million mobile broadband (MBB) subscribers in November 2024. In its 2QFY25 conference call, the VIL management also indicated that subscribers’ port-outs to BSNL have started declining since August 2024,” it added.