Jio-Airtel’s combined RMS to rise to 81% by FY25 amid Vodafone Idea’s delayed 5G rollout: Analysts

Reliance Jio Infocomm and Bharti Airtel’s dominance in the mobile services arena is set to rise further. The combined revenue market share (RMS) of India’s top two telcos is estimated to grow to 81% by FY25 from 77% now, amid Vodafone Idea’s continuing market share losses, further exacerbated by its much delayed 5G rollout, say analysts.

“Vi’s continued (revenue) share fall along with subscriber losses is concerning…the combined share domination of sector revenue by Jio and Airtel will rise further to 81% by FY25 with Vi’s delayed 5G rollout,” brokerage CLSA said in a note.

Once that happens, the combined RMS of Jio and Airtel will have increased by a whopping 17.5% percentage points from around 63.5% back in September 2019. Between September 2019 and March 2023, Vi’s RMS has seen a 10 percentage point erosion.

CLSA estimates Jio and Airtel’s RMS to rise to 43% and 38% respectively by end-FY25 from 41% and 36% now, and cash-strapped Vi’s dipping another percentage point to 16%, especially with the top two carriers rapidly expanding 5G coverage.

The RMS is a measure of overall telecom market leadership.

Latest telco financial data collated by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) shows that Jio and Airtel cornered a whopping 94% of the incremental adjusted gross revenue (including national long distance or NLD) market share while Vi’s fell 2.1% in the fourth quarter, FY23.

Incremental AGR market share is a key performance metric, which reflects the portion of increase in industry revenue that accrues to a telco. Incremental revenue or ‘AGR’ market share can be different from a telco’s current market share. If incremental revenue market share is higher than current market share, then the current RMS can be expected to rise over a period of time.

Jio and Airtel’s incremental AGR market shares stood at 51.2% and 42.8% respectively — well above their current RMS levels — in Q4FY23, ICICI Securities said, analysing the Trai data. This, according to analysts, points to further RMS gains for Jio and Airtel in the coming quarters as they bolster 5G operations.

Analysts expect Jio and Airtel to gain both customers and revenue share at Vi’s expense once they roll out countrywide 5G networks later this year. Airtel and Jio, in fact, have been rapidly expanding their 5G coverage since last October. Both are targeting pan-India rollouts by December 2023. By contrast, Vi hasn’t even announced a 5G rollout timeline, shackled by its failure to close its long-pending external fundraise.

Sector experts believe rising competitive intensity amid 5G rollouts may further push back tariff hikes to after the 2024 general elections, which could result in accelerated market share gains for Jio and Airtel at Vi’s expense. “Delayed tariff hikes, while negative for the sector, will hurt Vi’s survival hopes the most (it faces Rs 5,500 crore cash shortfall in FY24),” Kotak Institutional Equities said.