Airtel’s strong capex may harm Vodafone Idea’s market share going forward: Report

Vodafone Idea’s capex of Rs 120 billion over the last three years compared to Bharti Airtel’s capex of Rs 496 billion during the same period could make it difficult for the former telecom operator to defend its market share going ahead, BNP Paribas said in a research note Monday.

It said that Sunil Mittal-led telco continues to strengthen its network with rural expansion and the roll out of its 5G services.

“Subsequently, Airtel saw the highest quarterly tower additions (12k) in 4QFY23 (16% y-y increase in total sites) and 11% y-y rise in mobile BTS (base transceiver stations) installed, said the brokerage firm, noting that Vodafone Idea’s tower and BTS additions largely remained stable on a quarterly basis, a trend which is continuing since last year.

Airtel’s mobile service capex remained elevated at Rs 66 billion during 4QFY23, a 2.6x increase year-over-year, while Vodafone Idea’s capex declined 50% year-over-year to Rs 5.6 billion in 4QFY23 as the third-ranked telco likely prioritised vendor/bank payments in the fourth quarter, as per the brokerage firm.

Airtel expects FY24 capex to remain elevated, but reduce from FY25 onward, as rural expansion and 5G rollout would mostly be done by end-FY24, it said.

BNP Paribas said that the telecom industry revenue continued to moderate in 4QFY23 to 1% quarter-over-quarter from 1.8% quarter-on-quarter in 3QFY23, amidst the absence of any meaningful tariff hikes and lower number of days in the quarter.

“The growth was primarily led by robust 4G subscriber additions and a small tariff hike for low-end customers, though it was offset by the lower number of days in the quarter, leading to flat q-q ARPU. Airtel and Jio posted a q-q increase in revenue growth, with Jio (+1.7% q-q) outperforming Airtel (+1%), while VIL’s q-q revenue declined marginally (-0.8%),” it said.

Both Airtel (36.6%) and Jio (43.7%) continued to gain revenue market share, at the expense of struggling Vodafone Idea, whose market share had eroded to the sub-20% by March 2023.

BNP Paribas said that the overall subscriber growth in the industry has stagnated over the last two years — a period which has seen the impact of SIM consolidation following tariff hikes.

“Post consolidation, VIL’s subscriber base continued to erode (3m loss) with deteriorating market share, while Jio led the pack ( 6m net additions), followed by Airtel (3m). On 4G subscriber additions, Airtel outpaced others with 7m net additions vs VIL’s marginal increase of 1m,” it said.