5G to constitute over 50% of mobile subscriptions in India by 2028: Ericsson Mobility Report

Global 5G subscriptions remain on track to top one billion by the end of this year, and five billion by the end of 2028, despite current and developing economic challenges in many parts of the world. The November 2022 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report also forecasts global fixed wireless access (FWA) connections to grow faster than previously expected.

Driven in part by accelerated FWA plans in India, and expected growth in other emerging markets, FWA is forecast to grow at 19 percent year-on-year through 2022-28, and top 300 million connections by the end of 2028.

More than three-quarters of communications service providers (CSPs) surveyed in more than 100 countries currently offer FWA services. Almost one-third of CSPs are offering FWA over 5G, compared to one-fifth a year ago. Almost 40 percent of the new 5G FWA launches in the past 12 months have been in emerging markets

On 5G itself, about 110 million subscriptions were added globally between July-September 2022, bringing the total to about 870 million. As forecast in previous reports, 5G is still expected to reach one billion subscriptions by the end of this year – two years faster than 4G did, following its launch.

The statistic reinforces 5G as the fastest-scaling mobile connectivity generation. Key drivers include the timely availability of devices from multiple vendors, with prices falling faster than for 4G, and China’s large early 5G deployments. North America and North East Asia continue to see strong 5G growth, with 5G subscription penetration in the regions expected to reach about 35 percent by end of 2022. Globally, almost 230 CSPs have launched 5G services to date, with more than 700 5G smartphone models announced or launched commercially.

By the end of 2028, five billion 5G subscriptions are forecast globally, accounting for 55 percent of all subscriptions. In that same timeframe, 5G population coverage is projected to reach 85 percent while 5G networks are expected to carry around 70 percent of mobile traffic and account for all contemporary traffic growth.

Overall mobile subscriptions are expected to top 8.4 billion by the end of 2022, and 9.2 billion by the end of 2028. Most subscriptions are associated with smartphones. At the end of 2022, 6.6 billion smartphone subscriptions are estimated, accounting for about 79 percent of all mobile phone subscriptions

India Outlook: Rapid 5G deployments by Indian service providers will enable 5G subscriptions to reach around 31 million by the end of 2022 and 690 million by the end of 2028. 5G will represent around 53 percent of mobile subscriptions at the end of 2028. 4G subscriptions are expected to peak in 2024 at around 930 million and will thereafter decline to an estimated 570 million by the year 2028.

Mobile networks continue to play a pivotal role in driving social and economic inclusion. States Nitin Bansal, Head of Ericsson India and Head of Network Solutions for South east Asia, Oceania and India, Ericsson,” 5G will play a crucial role in achieving India’s digital inclusion goals especially for bringing broadband to rural and remote homes. In fact, enhanced mobile broadband is serving as the foundation for the Government’s “Digital India” vision by enabling people to access public services.

Enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) and fixed wireless access (FWA) are expected to be the early use-cases for 5G in India which will help address the concern of the limited fixed broadband penetration levels in the country and improve the data experience while on the move.“

The average data traffic per smartphone in the India region is the highest globally. It is projected to grow from 25 GB per month in 2022 to around 54 GB per month in 2028 – a CAGR of 14 percent. Total mobile data traffic in the India region is estimated to grow from 18 EB per month in 2022 to 53 EB per month in 2028, growing at a CAGR of 19 percent. This is driven by high growth in the number of smartphone users and the increase in average usage per smartphone. The smartphone subscriptions in India as a percentage of total mobile subscriptions are expected to grow from 77 percent in 2022 to 94 percent in 2028.